Smart sports betting, and football betting in particular, is in accordance with the skills of the teams involved rather than random chance. This difference profoundly affects simply click the up coming article appropriate betting strategies or systems. Understanding this difference is exactly what makes a highly effective sports bettor.

Many of the betting systems and strategies available today are based upon general probabilities of a win or loss and are modified versions of systems developed for games of chance. On the flip side, sports betting – as well as poker – isn’t according to random chance and probabilities, but on the skill of the contestants. Therefore the underlying premise of sport betting is significantly different than betting on games of chance.

Although most gambling strategies designed for games of chance are mathematically unsound, in practice if one has roughly a 50% chance of winning, these systems can at least appear to offer a highly effective means of betting. In the long run, the failure of such systems might be more or less inevitable because it is based upon the Gambler’s Fallacy. Gambler’s Fallacy is the mistaken impression that particular results are “due” determined by previous outcomes in a series of independent trials of a random process. As an example, the if one is tossing coins, and heads come up repeatedly, the gambler may conclude that this means tails is “due” to come up next; whereas, in all reality, the chances that the next coin toss will end in tails is precisely the same in spite of the number of times heads has come up already.

In skill-based wagering, the bettor with the most understanding of the contestants involved has a definite advantage over the bettor which is hoping that the desired outcome “is due” based on probabilities. There is absolutely no sound mathematical probability that any specific football team “is due” anything. Just think of Arsenal that won 14 consecutive games in 2002, or Derby County F.C. that lost 37 consecutive games in 2007-08. The critical element for these runs was the skill of the teams, not random chance.

That is not to say that random chance just isn’t involved, of-course it’s. Any team will make mistakes or have accidents, leading to upsets and surprise outcomes. On the other hand the smart sports bettor knows that the skill level of the team in question is much more likely to influence the outcome than chance and luck. This is what makes a successful sports bettor over time. Anybody can get lucky occasionally, but if one learns to make intelligent bets in line with the skills of the teams involved, one is a lot more more likely to win significant quantities of money over the long term.